How Well Did We Predict 2024? A Year in Review
Staffan and Fabian wrapped up 2024 in our annual Christmas episode with a mix of pride, humility, and a bit of laughter. Last year, we took bold steps to predict what the year would bring in our industry, and now it’s time to reflect on how well we did.
Some of our predictions turned out to be strikingly accurate, albeit sometimes with timing that made us “almost right.” For example, we predicted that Asian car manufacturers would announce production in Europe, and just as we recorded last year’s episode, BYD announced a factory in Romania. It was an eerie “too soon” moment, but we’ll take credit for being right on target, if not exactly on time.
Other trends we foresaw included Chinese foundry groups entering Europe, though the pace slowed down due to economic complexities and trade wars. Many of these companies found North America a more attractive market than Europe, which added a twist to our forecasts.
Yet, not all our crystal-ball moments shone brightly. One of our key expectations—an explosion of sustainability initiatives driven by CBAM and carbon taxes—fell disappointingly flat. While we saw exceptional movement in niche areas like telecom, automotive remained lukewarm. The truth is, most car manufacturers still prioritize cost over sustainability. It’s a sobering reality that even the smallest premium for carbon-neutral alloys often seems too much to bear.
Still, there were predictions we got spectacularly right. For instance, Tesla retained its dominance as the most sold EV brand in Europe, despite slowing momentum. Meanwhile, government pushback on the ICE ban also began to manifest, with official resistance from Italy and the Czech Republic leading the charge. These trends align perfectly with what we anticipated: policies, markets, and regulations are far from static, and a “one-question-at-a-time” approach often defines the automotive sector.
So, as we sat down with a mix of “we told you so” and “oops, maybe next time,” we acknowledged one truth: predicting the future isn’t about perfection. It’s about bold thinking, honest assessment, and staying open to learning. We were right, we were wrong, and sometimes, we were just a little too early.
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